Why Japan's Autumn Leaves Forecast Reads Late for Kyoto's Famous Spots
Japan's official autumn-leaf date for a city is the day one reference maple at the local Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observatory reaches peak colour. The famous spots travellers visit often get there sooner. In the 9 cities whose reference tree normally peaks on or after December 1, the well-known spots peak a median 9.4 days earlier, and earlier in all 9.
Kyoto is the clearest case. JMA's normal peak for its reference tree is December 5. Tofuku-ji, Eikando (Zenrin-ji) and Arashiyama typically peak around November 24–25: 10.3 days earlier.
This year's forecasts show the same split. Japan Meteorological Corporation's first 2026 forecast (2 September 2026) put Kyoto's reference maple at December 11. Weathernews' first forecast (3 September 2026, reported by Travel Voice) put Arashiyama, one of Kyoto's best-known spots, around November 24. Both can be right: they describe different trees.
What it means for your dates
Our planner centres the 11 cities with a clear gap on the famous spots' typical timing. The year-to-year spread is unchanged; only the centre moves. Chance that a trip overlaps peak colour in a typical year:
| Trip | Reference tree | Famous spots |
|---|---|---|
| Kyoto, 21–30 November | 19% | 79% |
| Kyoto, 8–14 December | 71% | 14% |
| Yokohama, 21–30 November | 1% | 66% |
| Tokyo, 21–30 November | 69% | 69% |
Computed when this page was built, with the same model as the planner; 2026 dates. Tokyo has no adjustment, so both columns match.
The week a reference-tree date points to can be the week the famous spots are past their best: Kyoto, 8–14 December, is 71% on the reference tree and 14% at the spots.
All 21 cities
Warm cities (reference-tree normal on or after December 1): Yokohama, Shizuoka, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Matsuyama, Kochi, Fukuoka and Kagoshima. Elsewhere the median gap is −0.8 days, too small to act on.
| City | JMA normal | Used here | Offset | Spots | Gap | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sapporo | Oct 28 | Oct 28 | 0 | Oct 25 | −2.8 | medium |
| Aomori | Nov 13 | Nov 13 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Sendai | Nov 21 | Nov 16 | −5 | Nov 16 | −5.2 | high |
| Niigata | Nov 15 | Nov 15 | 0 | Nov 14 | −0.8 | high |
| Kanazawa | Nov 24 | Nov 18 | −6 | Nov 18–19 | −5.7 | high |
| Nagano | Nov 12 | Nov 12 | 0 | Nov 13 | +1.2 | low |
| Tokyo | Nov 28 | Nov 28 | 0 | Nov 28–29 | +0.3 | medium |
| Yokohama | Dec 14 | Nov 27 | −17 | Nov 26–27 | −17.3 | medium |
| Shizuoka | Dec 5 | Nov 27 | −8 | Nov 27–28 | −7.5 | medium |
| Nagoya | Nov 28 | Nov 28 | 0 | Nov 26 | −1.9 | medium |
| Kyoto | Dec 5 | Nov 25 | −10 | Nov 24–25 | −10.3 | medium |
| Osaka | Dec 1 | Nov 22 | −9 | Nov 22–23 | −8.5 | medium |
| Nara | Nov 21 | Nov 21 | 0 | Nov 17 | −3.8 | medium |
| Kobe | Dec 1 | Nov 25 | −6 | Nov 25–26 | −5.7 | medium |
| Hiroshima | Nov 22 | Nov 22 | 0 | Nov 25 | +3.0 | medium |
| Takamatsu | Nov 23 | Nov 23 | 0 | Nov 30–Dec 1 | +7.6 | medium |
| Matsuyama | Dec 5 | Nov 24 | −11 | Nov 24 | −10.8 | medium |
| Kochi | Dec 2 | Nov 25 | −7 | Nov 25 | −7.0 | low |
| Fukuoka | Dec 1 | Nov 22 | −9 | Nov 21–22 | −9.4 | medium |
| Beppu | Nov 28 | Nov 28 | 0 | Dec 4 | +6.4 | low |
| Kagoshima | Dec 15 | Nov 30 | −15 | Nov 30 | −15.0 | high |
JMA normal = the reference tree's 1991–2020 normal peak. Used here = JMA normal + offset, the peak our odds are centred on. Spots = the spots' average typical peak; gap = spots minus JMA normal, in days (negative = spots earlier). City names link to that city's date guide for its peak.
Spots and sources
- Sapporo: Nakajima Park (Walkerplus, Jorudan); Hokkaido University Ginkgo Avenue (Walkerplus, Jorudan); Maruyama Park (Walkerplus, Jorudan)
- Aomori: no sourced in-city spot
- Sendai: Zuihoden (official site, Walkerplus); Jozenji-dori (official site); Nishi Park (official site)
- Niigata: Former Saito Family Villa (official site, Jorudan); Hakusan Park (official site); Northern Culture Museum (official site, Jorudan)
- Kanazawa: Kenrokuen (official site, Walkerplus, tenki.jp); Kanazawa Castle Park (Gyokusen-inmaru Garden) (Walkerplus); America Kaede-dori (official site, Jorudan)
- Nagano: Kiyomizu-dera (Wakaho) (Weathernews); Kumeji Gorge (Shinshushinmachi) (Walkerplus, Weathernews, tenki.jp)
- Tokyo: Rikugien (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan); Meiji Jingu Gaien Ginkgo Avenue (Walkerplus, tenki.jp); Shinjuku Gyoen (Walkerplus, Jorudan)
- Yokohama: Sankeien (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan); Nihon-odori (ginkgo) (Walkerplus, Jorudan); Yamashita Park Avenue (ginkgo) (Walkerplus)
- Shizuoka: Sumpu Castle Park (Jorudan); Kunozan Toshogu (Nihondaira) (official site)
- Nagoya: Tokugawaen (Walkerplus); Shirotori Garden (Walkerplus, Jorudan); Higashiyama Zoo and Botanical Gardens (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan)
- Kyoto: Tofuku-ji (Walkerplus, Jorudan); Eikando (Zenrin-ji) (Walkerplus, tenki.jp); Arashiyama (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan)
- Osaka: Osaka Castle Park (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan); Expo '70 Commemorative Park (Suita) (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan)
- Nara: Nara Park (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan); Isuien (Walkerplus, Jorudan)
- Kobe: Sorakuen (Walkerplus); Suma Rikyu Park (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan); Suma-dera (Walkerplus, tenki.jp)
- Hiroshima: Shukkeien (Walkerplus); Mitaki-dera (Jorudan); Miyajima Momijidani Park (Hatsukaichi) (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan)
- Takamatsu: Ritsurin Garden (official site, Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Jorudan); Shikoku Mura Museum (Yashima) (Jorudan)
- Matsuyama: Matsuyama Castle (Honmaru) (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Weathernews); Matsuyama Castle Ninomaru Historic Garden (Walkerplus, official site); Okudogo (Ichiyu no Mori, Ishite River) (official site, Weathernews)
- Kochi: Chikurin-ji (Godaisan) (Weathernews, Rurubu)
- Fukuoka: Maizuru Park (Fukuoka Castle ruins) (Walkerplus, Jorudan); Yusentei Park (Walkerplus, Jorudan); Rakusuien (Walkerplus, Jorudan)
- Beppu: Takasakiyama Natural Zoo (Oita City) (Walkerplus, tenki.jp, Weathernews, official site); Tekizanso garden (Hiji) (official site)
- Kagoshima: Sengan-en (official site); Jiganji Park (official site, official site)
Method and limitations
- For each city we took 2–3 well-known in-city or lowland spots (no mountain resorts) and their "typical peak" wording (例年の見頃) from tourism and weather sites. No year-specific forecasts were used.
- That wording comes in early, mid and late month, which we count as day 5, 15 and 25. A range maps to its midpoint, and a city's spots are averaged.
- The gap is rounded to whole days and applied only when it is at least 5 days, the resolution of that wording.
- Set to 0 on purpose: Aomori (no sourced in-city spot); Takamatsu (+7.6 comes from one weakly sourced spot; Ritsurin Garden alone gives +3.3); Beppu (+6.4 rests mostly on Takasakiyama and conflicts with the city's own "from early November"). Kochi rests on a single spot, so its −7 is low confidence.
- These are typical dates over many years, not a forecast for 2026. Tourism-site wording is rounded and sometimes dated.
Every quoted source is in koyo_spot_offsets.csv and koyo_spot_offsets.json; JMA's unadjusted values are on the open data page. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with credit to Japan Trip Tools (triptoolsjapan.com).