In an average year, Sapporo (Hokkaido)'s cherry blossoms reach full bloom around May 6. For a May 11–20 trip, the chance of overlapping peak bloom is ~58%, and the chance of seeing at least some blossoms is ~61%.
Across May 11–20 in an average year, expect roughly 6.5 days of green hazakura (leaves), and 1.5 days of petal fall / sakura snow. Fresh green leaves, blossoms finished. If this is your window, late-blooming yaezakura (up to ~2 weeks after) or heading north are your best moves.
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