In an average year, Nara's cherry blossoms reach full bloom around April 4. For an April 1–10 trip, the chance of overlapping peak bloom is ~94%, and the chance of seeing at least some blossoms is ~100%.
Across April 1–10 in an average year, expect roughly 3.5 days of opening (10→80%), and 3 days of full bloom. Trees filling in day by day (10→80% open). Thinner than the postcards, but parks are already lively — and 70%-open trees are genuinely beautiful.
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