Cherry Blossoms in Nara in Mid April: Will You Catch Them? (2027)
In an average year, Nara's cherry blossoms reach full bloom around April 2. For an April 11–20 trip, the chance of overlapping peak bloom is ~32%, and the chance of seeing at least some blossoms is ~32%.
32%chance of peak bloomA coin-flip — worth a backup plan.
usual bloom
this window
Mar 18darker = full bloomApr 28
What you'll likely see
Petal fall / sakura snow · ~0.5 daysGreen hazakura (leaves) · ~9 days
Fresh green leaves, blossoms finished. If this is your window, late-blooming yaezakura (up to ~2 weeks after) or heading north are your best moves.
This window is a stretch in Nara — on the same dates you'd likely have better odds of cherry blossoms in Nagano (79%) or Niigata (69%) instead. Hotels there for these dates: Nagano · Niigata.
About these numbers: Bloom timing is centred on the last 10 seasons of JMA observations (2017–2026), which run earlier than the 1991–2020 normal — by about 2 days in Nara.
Nearby dates & cities
Nara by date:
Better odds on the same dates:
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