In an average year, Tokyo's autumn leaves reach peak color around November 28. For a December 1–10 trip, the chance of overlapping peak color is ~62%, and the chance of seeing at least some autumn color is ~69%.
Across December 1–10 in an average year, expect roughly 5 days of falling / past peak, and 3 days of peak colour. Past peak — colours fading and leaves coming down. Gingko carpets can still be striking.
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